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I am a Ukrainian. My country has been invaded by Russia. In this video I will tell you what happened on the two hundred and thierty eighth day of the war.

Day 238: October 19

In this video, I will focus on the Kherson region and, in particular, on the northern part of the region. Here, after launching an offensive toward Mylove, the Ukrainians did something unexpected, they did not engage their reserves to increase the intensity of their attacks rapidly, and instead very slowly opened more lines of attack. The Russians realized that this was only combat reconnaissance and understanding that they simply do not have the facilities to repel the main attack, they started dumping water at the Kahovka dam, which clearly indicates that they expect the Ukrainians to step on the porch of Kherson very soon.

Last time the Ukrainians launched their attacks from Nova Kamianka in the directions of Sukhanove and Mylove. They passed the Piatykhatky-Kachkarivka line and got around 8 km deep in the region. The attack towards Mylove was necessarily launched in between these two ravines that slowly become tree belt areas. The Russians obviously leveraged the geography and prepared their defense line around 2 km north of Mylove. This is where the main fights have been taking place. Although Russian media sources continuously repeated that the fights are very tough and everything indicates that they will reinforce this group and try to reach Beryslav, it never happened. The Ukrainians did not send their reserves into battle and, in turn, actually did the opposite. The Ukrainians continued to relocate more and more forces to these reserves gradually. This indicates that the Ukrainians have not yet been ready for the main attack and engaged in the preparation, which is in some way the opposite of an attack.

Previously, the Ukrainians moved a lot of forces through Mykolaiv towards Kryvyi Rih. Russian military experts described this move as a creation of secondary and tertiary defense lines and deep reserves as a part of the preparation for a possible Russian counterattack from Snihurivka. However, it seems like the Ukrainians made this big hook to fool the Russians, or at least relocate their forces more safely, because, for the last two days, the Ukrainians have been relocating the newly arrived forces from the deep reserves to the close-to-the-frontline reserves. Reports are coming in suggesting that the concentration of tanks and armored machinery in the Davydiv Brid and Nova Kamianka areas is constantly increasing.

The Ukrainians have also made the Russians think that they are launching a real attack by conducting extensive artillery preparation. The Ukrainians have completed more than 110 fire missions to undermine Russian defense by damaging their defense infrastructure and supplies of gas, ammunition and food, and they also engaged their aviation and conducted several airstrikes with the aim of destroying Russian air defense objects. But why did they do it if they were not going to support it with attacks of the same intensity? The answer is simple, the Russians have been expecting a big attack, and they have surely tried to prepare as many surprises as possible to undermine the Ukrainian attack in the most decisive moment. So, by faking the attack, the Ukrainians exposed all hidden weapons and artillery positions; they collected information about how fast the Russians were able to send their reserves to the front and how many troops they were able to allocate to protect this direction; they found out the lag between an attack and a response from aviation; they have checked how the destruction of air defense objects and overwhelming air defense system by the artillery preparation influenced the ability of the Russians to shoot down drones, which in real attack will be substituted by aviation.

Russian military experts are not even considering the possibility that the primary defense line will stand. But people who are actually in command seem to be even less optimistic because they have started dumping water at the Kahovka dam. And even though dumping water is made to ensure the security of Kherson, the main point is that if they are doing it now, it means that they do not think that they will be able to do it in the near future.

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