Will Russia Invade Ukraine?

Full notes: https://horse-quart-a62.notion.site/Russia-cfbc62f7ef6740599a1fca5614193c8b

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00:00 - Intro
00:40 - Some News
01:19 - A Very Brief Overview
03:52 - Why is Putin Doing This?
04:52 - Possible Outcomes
05:10 - What is NATO worried about?
05:56 - US Response
07:40 - Russia and Ukraine
10:36 - The History of NATO and Russia
12:33 - Putin’s Development
13:17 - Russia’s Objectives
14:53 - Ukraine and NATO
15:55 - Consequences of Invading Ukraine
19:44 - What is NATO worried about?
20:40 - Russia’s Military Doctrine
22:54 - Economic Sanctions
27:48 - India and Russia
29:40 - Russian Military Force
31:20 - New Style of War
33:34 - Narratives and Nuclear Weapons
34:18 - Lessons from the Cold War
35:07 - US Response
37:51 - Meme Wars
40:14 - Final Thoughts

An analysis of Ukraine, Russia, NATO and the US

In order to understand why Russia is making such a big deal about Ukraine and it’s potential membership to NATO, you have to understand why Russia is Russia.

There is one consistent problem with Russia’s geography, it’s western border is very flat. From the Ottomans to Napoleon to the infamous German Chancellor, Moscow getting sacked is a pretty frequent event in the grand scheme of things.

NATO was developed to protect against the Soviet threat and it clearly worked. So when the USSR collapsed, the countries that were formerly part of the USSR or it’s satellite states - They began joining NATO as they believed that the risk of being reconquered by Russia was clearly high.

There is this often repeated fiction about the fall of the USSR that NATO and the West betrayed Russia by allowing former soviet states to join NATO and if they hadn’t done that - Russia would be part of NATO and the EU, and a dear friend to all.

It’s certainly a better reality than the one we have but it’s just not realistic. Russia was just a world superpower who was feared by both the Chinese and the Americans. They weren’t suddenly going to settle to just being one of the great powers.

And that brings us to today.

Ukraine joining NATO would see NATO troops only 283 miles from Moscow. NATO troops are already on the border of Russia in Latvia and Estonia but that route is about 200 miles longer and they joined in 2004, back when Russia wasn’t strong enough.

TL;DR Of The History

Russia is deeply paranoid that NATO will push East and conquer Russia. It’s what Europe has done time and time again.

NATO and these former Soviet states are deeply paranoid that Russia will try to bring the USSR back. There are people who turned 30 this year who lived in the USSR, it wasn’t that long ago.


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